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Bitcoin XT - discussing Satoshi's Vision

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Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs

I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article.
The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.

Bitcoin is the big boy

How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.

We are doing it anyway champ!

OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games:
A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.

How to evaluate altcoins

A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.

Basics

It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law

Fundamental analysis

This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!.
This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:

Relative valuation

One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.

Sector prospects

In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.

Hype

Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).

How to construct your portfolio

My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.

Conclusion

The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletter here
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Weekly Update: Parachute Townhall, Welcome $GET to ParJar, Uptrennd reaches 50k members, Fantom on IncognitoChain... – 6 Dec - 12 Dec'19

Weekly Update: Parachute Townhall, Welcome $GET to ParJar, Uptrennd reaches 50k members, Fantom on IncognitoChain... – 6 Dec - 12 Dec'19
Hi Parachuters! As part of 2 of 3 from today's rapid catch up series of pending updates, here’s your week at Parachute + partners (6 Dec - 12 Dec'19):

As mentioned last week, Cap and Ice hosted a townhall to talk about where we are at and where we are heading along with ample feedback and Q&A from the community. We covered a lot of ground: "value hypothesis for ParJar, Product Market fit, and our growth approach for 2020...performance of two key PAR utility metrics, staking and gas, and how we see growth for each in 2020...questions from the community and reviewed upcoming community initiatives". Click here to catch up on all that happened. GET Protocol’s $GET token was added to ParJar this week. Belated Birthday wishes to Doc Vic from Cuba. Jason lost a 5k $PAR wager with Cap on Victor’s age. Haha. Congratulations to Martha for winning this week’s Parena. As per the latest Fantasy Premier League (#FPL) update shared by LordHades this week, he is still ruling the charts at the top with NovelCloud and Alexis hot on his heels. From next week, "You can now view your first opponent in the 2019/20 FPL Cup on the My Team page - under Leagues". While you slay those miles with the Parachute Running Club (which has done 44 miles so far BTW), here’s a podcast to listen to. Cap’s recommendation: "It's geared towards people building products - but super super useful to think about any products you use. Skip to like 9 minutes in to skip through all the advertiesments ". Yes, I know. Cap wouldn’t be Cap without typos. Typos FTW!
Parachute townhall
Parachute-themed shirts designed by Doc Vic and Alejandro on Doc’s birthday. These are sick!
If you want to see yourself on the Parachute world map, make sure to enter your location here. The entries are anonymous. In this week's Parachute Fantasy Football League update, Hang is in the first position followed by Clinton and Andy. Connor made it to the playoffs and is now in 4th position. So it means farewell to Nilz, Ken, Kamo and Cap from this season. CoD mobile players, don't forget to join the Parachute WarZone hosted by Doc Vic from Cuba. I hear there's $PAR and $AMGO to be won! The TTR Hat Contest ended this week with some solid entries running in the lead. Epic creation Wendell! In this week’s creative prompt by Jason, Parachuters had to “do 3 nice things for a total stranger”. Basically, be a true blue Parachuter 😊. For this week's Two-for-Tuesday, Gian made it free-for-all. No theme. Post music as you wish and win 500 $PAR. Cool! Benjamin and Charlotte hosted trivias in TTR this week. Those were loads of fun! Andy announced the start of a College Football Bowl Game Pickem contest in Parachute. 100k $PAR prize pool. Doc Vic hosted another round of Champions League wager this week in TTR.
So much epicness in one picture. Jose, you are a genius!
Andy's Advent Calendar journey continues
Catch up on the latest aXpire update and 20k AXPR burn here and here respectively. As you would already know, instead of pitting both startups against each other, XIO decided to accept both Opacity and Uptrennd into the incubator program and opened up staking for them. This marks the official launch of the XIO Blockchain Incubator and it’s been a roaring start with USD 7k worth of tokens locked up in one hour and Opacity portal getting oversubscribed in no time. Video instructions for staking can be found here. Read up on the startups here. In three days, the total staking crossed 1M XIO levels. Insane! That is a great metric to measure performance. How does the $XIO token play a role in all this? The crew explained in this tweet thread. And with that a series of related discussions got off starting with the possibility of self-nomination for startups. Have a sub-100 CMC project that you think should be part of the incubator? Don’t forget to tag them. Plus, a cool 25k $XIO giveaway was launched. Remember, meaningful conversation is always welcome at the incubator and more often than not, they get rewarded. Check out the latest update on the Birdchain App SMS feature along with an expanded list of supported countries. Silent Notary reduced the $LAW token requirement for running a Masternode from 100M to 20M this week. Russian research company sudexpa.ru also gave its vote of confidence to Silent Notary in terms of its immutability. Wibson Marketing Manager Fi Scantamburlo attended the Latin American Bitcoin Conference Uruguay to speak on Data privacy, monetisation and how Wibson helps achieve these. Opacity now allows shared file preview for uploaded docs.
Shared File Preview on Opacity
Fantom's foray into the Afghan Ministry of Health's efforts to fight counterfeit drugs and other public health initiatives were covered by Forbes this week. Last week, we shared that Sikoba's e-voting platform, Itugen, which is based on Fantom’s Lachesis consensus was released. This week, they published its technical whitepaper. With so many moving parts in the project and so much happening all around, a recap is always a welcome refresher to catch up. $FTM got listed on South Korea’s Coinone with a $KRW pairing. It was also integrated with the IncognitoChain project’s pDEX with a $pUSDT pairing (remember, Harmony was added to the same platform a few days back?). IncognitoChain allows cryptos to be transacted privately using sidechains including those coins/tokens which are not privacy-oriented. Fantom also launched a developer portal and technical documentation ahead of the XAR Network mainnet release. The interoperability bridge is out as well. This allows both ERC20 and BEP2 token holders to move their tokens to the XAR Network. The wallet allows both staking and delegation. For the guide to joining XAR Network as a validator node, click here. A simple guide to staking on XAR Network can be found here. The team also sat down for an AMA with COTI this week. Blockchain Magazine’s interview of Michael was published. Continuing with Uptrennd’s 24 Days of Celebrations started last week, this week they hosted an Escape Room contest and Photo contest. The latest $1UP tokenomics update can be seen here. After 11 months, the platform now has 50k users across 177 countries. Wowza! And wicked stats on the engagement metrics as well. Jeff’s interview with Crypto Beadles came out this week.
A few entries for the Uptrennd Photo Contest
Click here and here for the latest District Weekly and Dev Update from District0x. In case you missed this week’s Dapp Digest, you can watch it here. Aragon fans will be in for a treat since it features Aragon Co-Founder Luis Cuende as a special guest. Remember, we had discussed last week that the Shuffle Monster Raffle had crossed a 10k $SHUF pool. Turns out it got to 13k+. Wow! The latest Hydro developer update is a comprehensive roundup from the entire ecosystem. VCC Exchange listed $HYDRO with a $BTC pairing. Hydro’s security tokenisation protocol, Hail, moved to mainnet this week. The team travelled to Boston for MassChallenge Fintech. Hydro will be hosting a Banking-as-a-Service happy hour next week to talk on how they are building solutions in the BaaS space. For starters, don’t forget to read their article on blockchain applications in finance. The team appeared for an AMA with Apache Traders which also featured a 45k $HYDRO giveaway. Digital payments platform VoPay is now partnered with Hydro for end-to-end payment solutions using Hydrogen API and other Hydro tools. Hydro’s smart contract was audited by Callisto and passed their test with flying colours except for one "low severity" issue. The result: "The contract can be deployed". CTO Tim Allard was interviewed by Ethereum Network Nigeria as part of their Ethereum personality chat series. For the latest update on the community explorer Frost, click here. In Pynk’s first guest blog post, community member (or, Pynkster) Alistaire Wallace talks about what the coming year could hold for Pynk and its community of predictors. Check out the transcript of Sentivate’s AMA with tehMoonwalkeR here.
Sentivate’s new office in PA is shaping up quite well
This week at OST was all about the Pepo app: from angel investor Kartik to Rocket NFT’s Alex Masmej joining the platform, accelerator The Fledge using Pepo Conversations to power community-sourced improvements to businesses, Home for the Holidays Challenge to explain crypto/blockchain to relatives (with a total USD 2k in Pepo coins in prizes) and a “best lifehack” bounty posted by Jason on the app. If you’ve missed all SelfKey news from the past month, you can catch up from the November progress report. Also, did you know that the group Legion of Doom which was once considered to be the most capable hacking group in the world was in a long drawn feud with Masters of Deception in what is now known as the Great Hacker War? Learn more info like this from SelfKey’s latest article on hacking groups. Constellation CEO Ben Jorgensen will be speaking at the Crypto 2020 Summit. If you’re attending, make sure to say Hi. Arena Match announced a trading competition on DDEX with 4M $AMGO tokens to be won. Lucky Bluff Poker will be sponsoring next week’s Arena Match Raffle. The latest Harmony update compilation from the whole team can be found here. In the latest Pangea statistics (Harmony’s experimental staking game to test the limits of its tech), the average staking position is 1.8M $ONE with 75% of participants operate nodes themselves while the rest use delegates. Plus, check out the newest upgrades here. Honest Mining announced mainnet support for the native $ONE token swap. $ONE is also in consideration for listing on Binance US. The token was listed on Pionex this week. The Intellishare website registration and login functions will be down next week for a scheduled upgrade. Also, $INE traders make sure to keep a note of WBFex temporarily disabling the $ETH trading pair. Jobchain’s $JOB token got listed on Bilaxy exchange, P2PB2B exchange, SWFT Blockchain wallet and SWOP.SPACE exchange. The project was also given an A+ score by Xangle. Congrats!

And with that, it’s a wrap. See you again soon with another weekly update. Bye!
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Intro CCXT Trade Crypto Bitcoin on all Exchanges - Chapter 5.1- Python Binance Bot Binance Bot Tutorial - Intro Python Auto Trading Software - Chapter 1 Import CCXT - Python Binance Crypto Trading Bot - Chapter 5.2 Bitcoin Magazine Presents the Final Table for the Binance Charity Poker game 5/15 Bitcoin Trading Bot (Tutorial) - YouTube 3Commas Trading Bot Binance Trading Bot Update! Binance Charity Poker Cup ♠️ Hosted by TRONbet ♣️ Binance Bot Step-By-Step Install Open Source Crypto Trading Software - Python Binance 2018 Crypto Arbitrage 101 - Bitcoin Python Binance Crypto Trading Bot - Ch 5.15 Crypto Triangular Arbitrage Binance Bot 1 - Example Code - Build Crypto Trader Bot

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Intro CCXT Trade Crypto Bitcoin on all Exchanges - Chapter 5.1- Python Binance Bot

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